WR at 1 million: population projections

by Craig Sloss and Neeraj Nachnani

Introduction

Statistics Canada has projected the future size of the population of the Region of Waterloo, going out to the 2040’s. These projections are provided for both the total population, but also for demographics such as age and racial / ethnic groups. We have summarized some of these projections in this document, and have noted topics where more detailed data is available for follow-up questions. 

Some key observations in these projections include:

  • The population of the Region of Waterloo could reach 1 million as early as 2046, under a Statistics Canada’s high growth scenario
  • The Region of Waterloo is expected to become much more racially diverse in the future, with the proportion of racialized individuals living in the region reaching 40% by the 2040’s. The increase in racial diversity is expected even in low-immigration scenarios.
  • The population of the Region of Waterloo is expected to become older on average by 2041. Racialized individuals are younger on average than the overall population, but Statistics Canada projects that this group will also become older on average.

It is important to remember that these are estimates about what will happen in the future, so there is a lot of uncertainty around the accuracy of these projections. Statistic Canada manages this uncertainty by creating projections under different “scenarios” that represent different outcomes for the future: what would things look like if population growth is higher or lower than expected? What if immigration is higher or lower than expected? While these projections are inherently uncertain, they provide us with potential pictures of what the future demographics of the Region of Waterloo might look like, and help us plan for potential outcomes. 

Overall population projections

Under Statistics Canada’s high-growth scenario, the population of the Region of Waterloo could grow from 674 thousand in 2023 to just over 1 million in 2046 – a 50% increase. Under a medium-growth scenario, the population would reach 874 thousand by this time, and under a low-growth scenario the population would reach 771 thousand. 
These numbers are based on applying Ontario average growth rates to the current Region of Waterloo population. However, the Region of Waterloo is one of the fastest growing regions in Canada, so we expect that the Region’s population growth to be closer to the high-growth scenario in this graph.

Graph showing population projections for Waterloo Region, ranging from 674,000 to over 1,000,000 by 2046.

Diversity projections

Today, immigrants make up 25% of the population of the Region of Waterloo. This is projected to grow in the future, even under a low-immigration scenario. By 2041, Statistics Canada projects that 29-34% of Region of Waterloo residents will be immigrants.

Graph showing projections for percentage of immigrants in Waterloo Region by 2041, ranging from 29 to 34 percent.

Today, 27% of Region of Waterloo residents belong to a racialized group. Racial diversity is projected to grow substantially in the future, with an estimated 39-41% of the population belonging to a racialized group by 2041, with the projection varying based on the future rate of immigration.

Graph showing projections for percentage of racialized population in Waterloo Region, reaching 39-41% by 2041.

Age of Population Projections

Statistics Canada also provides its projections of racialized and immigrant population sizes based on age group, and shows a consistent pattern of an aging population between 2023 and 2041.

Graph showing age range distribution for the high-immigration scenario. By 2041, there are generally projected to be more people aged 50 and above than today, and fewer people aged younger than 50.

The above graph compares the age distribution for non-racialized individuals, from 2023 to 2041. By 2041, Statistics Canada projects that a greater proportion of the population will be 45 years or older, and that the proportion of the population under 45 will shrink.

Graph showing the projection for age distribution in racialized groups. For racialized groups, we see fewer people under 40 than today, and more people over 40 than today.

Among racialized individuals, in 2023 the age distribution skews much younger than the non-racialized population, but still shows an average aging pattern by 2041: the proportion of racialized individuals 35 and older is expected to grow, while the under 35 population is expected to shrink as a proportion of the total population.

Graph showing projected age distribution among immigrant population. By 2041, there will be fewer immigrants younger than 40, more immigrants in their 40s and 50s, fewer immigrants in their 60s, the same amount of immigrants in their 70s, and more immigrants in their 80s and 90s.

The age distribution of immigrants shows a different pattern: a “bell” pattern peaking in the 35-44 age group. The shape is expected to remain the same in 2041, but shifting to the right to reflect a population that is aging on average, with the peak of the bell moving to the 45-54 age group.

About this analysis

The graphs in this document were created by Craig Sloss and Neeraj Nachnani, based on projections provided by Statistics Canada. Specifically:

Documentation: https://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=5126